# Table 11: Pre-Trend Diagnosis

Three approaches to address contaminated pre-trends.


## GDP Growth

| h | Baseline | A: + Demographics | B: De-meaned | C: Residualized |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -3 | -2.6736*** | -2.6028*** | -3.1973*** | -2.6265*** |
| -2 | -2.3669*** | -2.3081*** | -2.9534*** | -2.3571*** |
| -1 | -1.4518*** | -1.4098*** | -1.7619*** | -1.4435*** |
| 0 | -1.2573*** | -1.1809*** | -1.2634*** | -1.2221*** |
| 1 | 0.4642 | 0.4275 | 0.1779 | 0.3367 |
| 2 | 1.7783** | 1.7160** | 1.2503* | 1.7110** |
| 3 | 1.8344** | 1.7997** | 1.4254* | 1.9008** |
| 4 | 0.0104 | 0.0070 | -0.2784 | 0.1849 |
| 5 | 0.3055 | 0.3112 | -0.1656 | 0.4574 |


## TFP Growth

| h | Baseline | A: + Demographics | B: De-meaned | C: Residualized |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -3 | -0.0294*** | -0.0285*** | -0.0301*** | -0.0282*** |
| -2 | -0.0183*** | -0.0173*** | -0.0177*** | -0.0172*** |
| -1 | -0.0128*** | -0.0124*** | -0.0139*** | -0.0121*** |
| 0 | -0.0057** | -0.0054** | -0.0061** | -0.0051** |
| 1 | -0.0049 | -0.0041 | -0.0019 | -0.0038 |
| 2 | 0.0091 | 0.0100 | 0.0108* | 0.0105* |
| 3 | 0.0035 | 0.0039 | 0.0042 | 0.0048 |
| 4 | 0.0014 | 0.0013 | 0.0018 | 0.0027 |
| 5 | 0.0024 | 0.0019 | 0.0015 | 0.0035 |


## Δ Investment/GDP

| h | Baseline | A: + Demographics | B: De-meaned | C: Residualized |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -3 | 0.2807 | 0.3079 | 0.2277 | 0.2569 |
| -2 | 0.1670 | 0.1992 | 0.1023 | 0.1571 |
| -1 |  |  |  |  |
| 0 | 0.0372 | -0.0050 | 0.0357 | 0.0318 |
| 1 | 0.6751** | 0.5996** | 0.7681** | 0.6586** |
| 2 | 1.3404*** | 1.2547*** | 1.5141*** | 1.3225*** |
| 3 | 1.1571*** | 1.0577*** | 1.2454*** | 1.1390*** |
| 4 | 0.8222** | 0.7157* | 0.8705** | 0.7835* |
| 5 | 0.6016 | 0.5052 | 0.6804 | 0.5456 |

*p<0.1, **p<0.05, ***p<0.01. OECD subsample.*
